In some signs of normalcy, college football preview magazines are available. Not sure how it is in your area, but it was a bit trickier to find them this year. So far, I’ve been able to obtain Athlon, Lindy’s, and Street & Smith previews. I am a big fan of college football magazines and enjoy the preseason ritual of reading and preparing for the season. (If you are young and completely into digital information, give the magazines a shot. They are excellent resources and provide the constant reminder of better things to come in the fall when you see them on your coffee table.)
It’s interesting to see where the predictions for the season differ from magazine to magazine. In some conferences/divisions there is much agreement among the writers for these publications, while in other instances there are substantial differences. Today, I’ve decided to start with the ACC and take an average of the magazine predicted finishes, by division, and compare it to the betting market futures on winning the division from www.mybookie.com. The odds to win the division are transformed to win probabilities based on the posted odds and this can be seen on the vertical axis in the charts. The horizontal axis is the average predicted finish across the three available magazines I have in my possession. In addition to these pieces of information, the size of the data mark for each team notes the sum of the number of returning starters on offense and defense for each team (from Athlon) and the shape notes if the starting quarterback is returning (star for returning QB, circle if not). A power trend line to fit the data is provided for each division.
The top chart is the ACC-Atlantic division. Clemson, as expected, is a huge favorite to win the division and is unanimously predicted to finish first in the division by the three magazines. Louisville averages as the #2 ranked team in the division from the magazine predictions but has the same odds of winning the division as Florida State, who the magazines are not as high on for the season. Wake Forest is +2500 to win the division but is predicted by the magazines to finish in a spot similar to Florida State (who is +1400). The bottom three teams are somewhat interchangeable under the magazine predictions. While all are relative longshots, the betting market gives Syracuse a better chance to win the division, compared to NC State and Boston College, despite only 9 returning starters.
The bottom chart is the ACC-Coastal. This division has a history of parity and tends to go down to the wire to see who can get crushed by Clemson in the conference title game. This season, the betting market suggests parity, but the magazines are unanimous in their choice to win the division. North Carolina comes away with the #1 ranking in the three magazines, with Virginia Tech averaging in the #2 position. Miami is tied with Pittsburgh in terms of magazine rankings, but the two diverge greatly in terms of the futures betting market. Miami is the favorite to win the division from the betting market at +200, while Pittsburgh is +1000. The betting market has a tie for the second favorite with North Carolina and Virginia Tech each at +250. While North Carolina, Virginia Tech, and Pittsburgh all have a returning starter at QB, Miami gets the services of college football daily fantasy legend D’Eriq King in a transfer from Houston. In terms of the other schools, the betting market has Virginia on par with Pittsburgh and they are predicted to be middle-of-the-pack in the magazines. Duke and Georgia Tech are picked to finish 6th and 7th by the magazines, although the betting market put Duke within relative striking distance of Virginia and Pitt.
I plan on updating these charts later in the summer when Phil Steele releases his preview (one of the top days of the year in my opinion) and Football Outsiders Almanac (not a magazine, but same idea) is published. Keep an eye out later this week for similar charts for other conferences. Week 0 cannot come fast enough (you know you want Austin Peay vs Central Arkansas in August – give the FCS some love).
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