This is the 2nd part of a series of visualizing betting market odds for winning divisions in each of the FBS College Football Conferences. Today, we move on to the Big 10. Odds to win the division are from www.mybookie.com and the magazine rankings are an average of Athlon, Lindy’s, and Street & Smith’s.
The odds to win the division are transformed to win probabilities based on the posted odds and this can be seen on the vertical axis in the charts. The horizontal axis is the average predicted finish across the three magazines. In addition to these pieces of information, the size of the data mark for each team notes the sum of the number of returning starters on offense and defense for each team (from Athlon) and the shape notes if the starting quarterback is returning (star for returning QB, circle if not). A power trend line to fit the data is provided for each division.
The top chart is the Big 10 East. There is a clear hierarchy here, in both the betting market futures and in the magazine rankings. Ohio State is the favorite and unanimous choice to win the division, with Penn State a unanimous choice to finish 2nd in both. Michigan gets the 3rd rank across the magazines and the betting market has them in the same spot, although the gap between Penn State and Michigan is not that large in terms of win probability. A much bigger drop occurs to the next two teams, which is the only spot where the magazine predictions differ. Indiana gets the slight nod to finish 4th over Michigan State by the writers of the magazines but has a larger predicted advantage of finishing there from the betting market odds. The small circle for Michigan State reveals few returning starters, which does not include QB as Brian Lewerke graduated. Add in a new head coach (Mel Tucker) and it is an interesting reset for the Spartans. Maryland and Rutgers (with Greg Schiano returning to New Jersey that makes me feel like a Sopranos reboot must be right around the corner) takes the 6th and 7th place respectively on both the magazine and betting market fronts.
The bottom chart plots the Big 10 West. Wisconsin is the clear favorite, but it appears to be an interesting race for spots 2-4 according to both the magazines and the betting market. Minnesota, Iowa, and Nebraska are clustered together as their rankings differ across the magazines. The betting market appears more confident in P.J. Fleck and his Golden Gophers (and why not – he just keeps proving it over and over), while Iowa and Nebraska are seen as equals in the betting market futures (I, for one, am hoping that Scott Frost has his personnel in place and the Nov. 27 matchup in Lincoln starts a series of great chess matches between him and Fleck). Purdue, Northwestern, and Illinois each get slotted in the same spots by the magazines, but the betting market appears a bit more optimistic about Northwestern’s chances than either Purdue or Illinois.
I plan on updating these charts later in the summer when Phil Steele releases his preview and Football Outsiders Almanac is published. Keep an eye out for similar charts for other conferences.
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