These dashboards present the college football watchability index, which highlights the most- and least-watchable games of the week. The absolute value of the point spread is on the horizontal axis and this represents a measure of uncertainty of outcome. Lower point spreads, in absolute value terms, are expected to be closer games. The total (over/under) is plotted on the vertical axis, with higher totals representing games that are expected to be higher scoring. The shape of the point representing each game represents day and start time. The color of the point is differentiated by the use of Sagarin Ratings for each team and sums them for the two teams playing in the game. Gold represents a combined high sum (could be 2 good teams or a dominant team in the game) and Red represents a combined low sum (not among the better teams playing in the game).
There are 3 dashboards presented this weekend, one for games Thursday, Friday, and Saturday early (before 2:30), one for Saturday midday, and the last one for Saturday evening and late. The most-watchable games are typically in the upper-left hand quadrant, where games are anticipated to be close and high-scoring, typically followed by the lower-left hand quadrant where games are expected to be close, but relatively lower-scoring. The best teams often are seen in the upper-right hand quadrant, which feature big point spreads and totals.
On the first visualization, Thursday-Saturday early, there are plenty of games that are anticipated to be close and high-scoring (upper left). The best games here are likely to be Wake Forest-Louisville and Minnesota-Nebraska. In the lower-left hand quadrant, Utah-Colorado appears to be the best of the close but expected lower-scoring games. Despite relatively high point spreads, Georgia-Missouri (lower-right) and Oklahoma-Virginia (upper-right) provide good entertainment value as well.
For the midday games (second visualization), some very good games appear in the upper-left quadrant (high scoring and close) with North Carolina-Miami FL and Washington-Oregon providing some potential fireworks. Despite its lower scoring expectations, Wisconsin-Iowa should be a tight Big 10 game for viewers.
The third visualization provides the games on Saturday evening and late night. Both Virginia-Virginia Tech an USC-UCLA provide nice rivalry games that are anticipated to be down to the wire and high scoring. Oklahoma St.-Baylor and Auburn-Mississippi St. (lower-left) provide some good viewing options as well. Despite the relatively high point spread and lower expected total, I’m eagerly looking forward to seeing how BYU responds to its loss at Coastal Carolina in a good matchup against San Diego St.
Hope you enjoy this weekend’s games!
See the First Steps: Football Analytics is available on Amazon.
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