The college football weekend is upon us and we have a great set of games coming up over the next few days. This dashboard is the college football watchability index, which highlights the most- and least- (if there could ever be such a thing with college football) watchable games of the week. The absolute value of the point spread is on the horizontal axis and this represents a measure of uncertainty of outcome. Lower point spreads, in absolute value terms, are expected to be closer games. The total (over/under) is plotted on the vertical axis, with higher totals representing games that are expected to be higher scoring. The shape of the point representing each game represents day and start time. The color of the point is differentiated by the use of Sagarin Ratings for each team and sums them for the two teams playing in the game. Gold represents a combined high sum (could be 2 good teams or a dominant team in the game) and Red represents a combined low sum (not among the better teams playing in the game).
Starting with the least-enticing games on the docket, the lower-right hand quadrant of games, there are a few games with point spreads of around two touchdowns and a 3+ TD contest in West Virginia. Of these games, the Pitt-Miami matchup is intriguing to see if Pitt can keep it close or even pull a big upset at Miami. The top-right hand quadrant contains games that are not expected to be close but are expected to be relatively high scoring. Expected big victories by North Carolina, Notre Dame, and Clemson are all located in this quadrant, which are important matchups for national rankings.
The lower-left hand quadrant contains games that are expected to be close, but relatively low scoring. The most-anticipated matchup of the weekend, Georgia-Alabama, is situated here with even more drama added due to the Covid-19 diagnosis of Alabama coach Nick Saban. Other important and interesting games in this quadrant include Auburn-South Carolina, Kentucky-Tennessee, and Cincinnati-Tulsa.
The most entertaining games typically lie in the upper-left hand quadrant, where close and high-scoring games are expected. Some potentially fun games on Thursday (Georgia St. – Arkansas St.) and Friday (BYU-Houston) nights are located in this quadrant. Very high scoring and likely tight matchups between Mississippi-Arkansas and Central Florida-Memphis are required viewing for those who like points on the board (or are looking to cheer on high-scoring daily fantasy lineups).
If I had to choose one game in each timeslot on Saturday to watch, I’ll choose Auburn-South Carolina in a tough decision over Cincinnati-Tulsa early, Mississippi-Arkansas midday, and must-see TV in Georgia-Alabama at night. I’d recommend to fire up as many screens as possible, sit back, and enjoy the games!
Comments