As we eagerly await a true full weekend of college football, this weekend supplies many exciting matchups. A bunch of great games which are expected to be close, including many where points are expected to be plentiful, fill the docket for Saturday. This dashboard is the college football watchability index, which highlights the most- and least- (if there could ever be such a thing with college football) watchable games of the week. The absolute value of the point spread is on the horizontal axis and this represents a measure of uncertainty of outcome. Lower point spreads, in absolute value terms, are expected to be closer games. The total (over/under) is plotted on the vertical axis, with higher totals representing games that are expected to be higher scoring. The shape of the point representing each game represents day and start time. The color of the point is differentiated by the use of Sagarin Ratings for each team and sums them for the two teams playing in the game. Green represents a combined high sum (could be 2 good teams or a dominant team in the game) and Red represents a combined low sum (not among the better teams playing in the game).
There are a large number of games in the most exciting quadrant on the chart, the upper-left. These are games featuring close games where the total is high. Games in green involve higher-rated teams. Memphis at SMU has the highest total on the board for the week, coupled with a small point spread. Other good matchups in this quadrant include Texas Tech at Kansas State, Mississippi at Kentucky, Oklahoma at Iowa State, and TCU at Texas. A somewhat under the radar game in this quadrant is the Arkansas St.-Coastal Carolina game, which is worth a look if you get the chance.
The lower-left hand quadrant also features games that are expected to be close but are not expected to be as high scoring. Auburn at Georgia is the marquee matchup here, but other matchups are worth considering to watch including Navy-Air Force, Baylor-West Virginia, and Missouri-Tennessee.
The lower-right hand quadrant includes many games this week. Alabama hosting Texas A&M is a prime matchup here, with other top teams in action as well (with high point spreads and relatively low totals) including Virginia-Clemson and South Carolina-Florida.
The upper-right hand quadrant showcases games which are not expected to be close but are expected to be high scoring. Central Florida appears here again in their contest against Tulsa, while an impressive BYU team (vs. LA Tech) and Mississippi St. (vs. Arkansas) are also included in this grouping of games.
For Saturday, if I had to choose one game to watch at each time slot, I would choose the Arkansas St.-Coastal Carolina game early (in a slight nod over South Carolina-Florida which I know would be most people’s choice), Memphis-SMU midday, and Auburn-Georgia at night. Thankfully, I do not have to choose as all the screens/monitors here will be filled with college football action all day Saturday. Enjoy!
See the First Steps: Football Analytics is now available at www.seesports.net/shop and on Amazon.
Comments