A few more games trickle in this weekend in college football as we wait in anticipation of the SEC beginning its games and we hope the Big 10 and PAC 12 will be able to play this year (we’ll see how the votes go). Last weekend was fun, except if you are a fan of the Big 12 as the Sun Belt put the college football world on notice. It was not too long ago that the Sun Belt were “Added Games” in Vegas, but the league has certainly increased its talent level and it led to some great upset moments that so many of us love about college football.
This dashboard is the college football watchability index, which highlights the most- and least- (if there could ever be such a thing with college football) watchable games of the week. The absolute value of the point spread is on the horizontal axis and this represents a measure of uncertainty of outcome. Lower point spreads, in absolute value terms, are expected to be closer games. The total (over/under) is plotted on the vertical axis, with higher totals representing games that are expected to be higher scoring. The shape of the point representing each game represents game day and time with time grouped into three categories for Saturday, Early, Midday, and Evening. The color of the point uses the power rankings in Phil Steele’s College Football Preview for each team and sums them for the two teams playing in the game (in another few weeks will change over to Sagarin Ratings and/or team records). Gold represents a combined high sum (could be 2 good teams or a dominant team in the game) and Red represents a combined low sum (not among the better teams playing in the game).
To analyze the slate this weekend, let’s start in the upper left quadrant, which to most fans are the games that are most interesting. We have a great evening ACC matchup with Miami FL at Louisville, which promises lots of scoring (at least from the betting market perspective) and a tight game. This is the marquee matchup this weekend, in my opinion. Another important game with big implications (especially if Big 10 and PAC 12 do not play) is Central Florida-Georgia Tech. Central Florida may get its chance to play for a title if it runs the table, but an improved Georgia Tech team, coming off a big win against Florida State could provide a good early season test. Houston-Baylor and App St.-Marshall are also important affairs that should provide close games with enough scoring to keep the daily fantasy players happy.
In the upper-right hand quadrant we have games which are not expected to be close, but are expected to be high scoring. Tulsa at Oklahoma State and Charlotte at North Carolina are the big names here. North Carolina needed some late scores against a Syracuse defense that seemed to be on the field the whole game to cover last week. So, it will be interesting to see if a 4+ TD spread is too high or if North Carolina’s offense gets rolling early. Also in this quadrant of games is the highest total on the board with SMU-North Texas and an interesting Louisiana (Lafayette)-Georgia State game.
Moving to the bottom-left quadrant, we have games that are expected to be close, but relatively lower scoring. Two ACC matchups are likely headliners in this group, with Wake Forest taking on NC State and Boston College playing Duke. Navy and Tulane could be interesting and while LA Tech-Southern Miss and Florida Atlantic-Georgia Southern may not jump off the page, they should be close games and could be worth an early season peek to see what these teams have to offer.
The final quadrant of games is in the lower-right corner, where we have expected low-scoring games which are not expected to be competitive. Pitt and Notre Dame are big favorites in their games, while Liberty-Western Kentucky offer a bit higher total and a smaller point spread, but with much less name recognition. It will be interesting to see if Syracuse and South Florida can keep the games close to provide the cover in games against Pitt and Notre Dame respectively.
In a sub-optimal world where I would have to choose only one game per time slot, what would I choose to watch? I’ll take App. St-Marshall over Houston-Baylor at noon, Central Florida-Georgia Tech midday, and Miami FL-Louisville at night. Thankfully, my full array of TVs and monitors are set to go on Saturday, and I look forward to a full day and night of college football. Hope you are looking forward to it as much as I am.
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