The NFL “Watchability Index” is based upon betting market point spreads and totals for the week and current wins of both teams in the 2020 season. This information can be combined to peer into the future and determine what games are the most “Watchable” for week 12 in the NFL. The visualization shows the absolute value of the point spread on the horizontal axis and the total (over/under) on the vertical axis. Additionally, the sum of the wins (home team plus road team) is noted by color with gold being the highest sums and red being the lowest sums. The shape reveals the day and time of the game. As of right now, I do not have a point spread and total for Chicago/Green Bay on Sunday night, so that game is not included in this week’s index.
Based on this week’s numbers, what games are most “Watchable”? The games that are expected to be both high scoring and close are in the upper-left hand quadrant. The best game of the weekend is Kansas City-Tampa Bay, which is featured in this region. Another excellent and important matchup here is Tennessee-Indianapolis. Other expected close and high-scoring affairs include Las Vegas-Atlanta, Houston-Detroit, and Arizona-New England.
The lower-left hand quadrant features games that are expected to be close, but not as high-scoring. The poor performance overall of the NFC East leaves the Thanksgiving tilt between Washington and Dallas as interesting, despite the teams’ poor overall records. Carolina-Minnesota is also located in this quadrant.
The upper-right hand quadrant has games that are expected to be high-scoring, but not necessarily close. Three games that should feature some fireworks, all with some playoff implications, are in this region including Cleveland-Jacksonville, Seattle-Philadelphia, and LA Chargers-Buffalo. The last quadrant, the lower-right, includes games which are expected to be low-scoring and not necessarily close. Baltimore’s recent struggles and their COVID issues has put an otherwise enticing Baltimore-Pittsburgh matchup in this quadrant. New Orleans at Denver has the potential to be interesting, while the NY Giants-Cincinnati (should the Giants be 6-point favorites on the road against anyone, even without their QB?), Miami-NY Jets, and San Francisco-LA Rams rounds out the slate.
My top Sunday matchups are Tennessee-Indianapolis at 1 PM (EST) and Kansas City-Tampa Bay in the late afternoon game. Have a happy Thanksgiving and enjoy the NFL football this weekend.
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