The NFL “Watchability Index” is based upon betting market point spreads and totals for the week and current wins of both teams in the 2020 season. This information can be combined to peer into the future and determine what games are the most “Watchable” for week 17 in the NFL. The visualization shows the absolute value of the point spread on the horizontal axis and the total (over/under) on the vertical axis. Additionally, the sum of the wins (home team plus road team) is noted by color with gold being the highest sums and red being the lowest sums. The shape reveals the day and time of the game. This week is different from most, as teams that have clinched their spot (such as Kansas City) will not play all of their key players and in other games, some teams have much to play for, while the other team has been eliminated. With this in mind, I will keep the index the same, but add some thoughts below.
Based on this week’s numbers, what games are most “Watchable”? The games that are expected to be both high scoring and close are in the upper-left hand quadrant. Green Bay-Chicago is the best game here. Green Bay clinches a bye with a win or tie, while Chicago earns a playoff berth with a win (whoever loses can still get that spot with help from other teams). Although meaningless for the playoffs, Las Vegas-Denver should still be entertaining with a relatively high total and an anticipated close game.
The lower-left hand quadrant features expected close games with relatively lower totals. Both NFC East matchups lie here with the Dallas-New York Giants winner having a shot at the division title with the win on Sunday afternoon, while Washington can take the division with a win on Sunday night. Arizona-Los Angeles Rams and Miami-Buffalo are also in this quadrant with major ramifications for playoff berths and/or positioning.
The upper-right hand quadrant features expected high scoring games that are not anticipated to be close. Games in this quadrant with playoff implications (berths and/or positioning) include New Orleans-Carolina, Atlanta-Tampa Bay, Tennessee-Houston, and Jacksonville-Indianapolis. The lower-right hand quadrant of games are not expected to be close, nor high scoring. Each of the games in this quadrant are interesting, however, due to playoff implications of each contest.
Enjoy the games this weekend as we look forward to the playoffs!
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