The dashboard presents some valuable information about week 2 games in the NFL. The “Watchability Index” is based upon betting market point spreads and totals for the week and the season win totals (over/unders) heading into the season. This information can be combined to peer into the future and think about what games are the most “Watchable” games for week 2 in the NFL. The visualization shows the absolute value of the point spread on the horizontal axis and the total (over/under) on the vertical axis. Additionally, the sum of the win totals (home team plus road team) is noted by color with yellow being the highest sums and red being the lowest sums. The shape reveals the day of the game.
Based on this week’s numbers, what games are most “Watchable”? If we assume that fans prefer games that are expected to be close and high scoring, we’re likely to start our analysis in the upper left-hand quadrant of games. There we see two of the expected higher-scoring games of the weekend with absolute values of the point spread being slightly below average for the week in Atlanta at Dallas on Sunday and New Orleans at Las Vegas on Monday night. Each game is a bit golden in color as the sum of the pre-season win totals of the teams are relatively high, despite the Falcons-Cowboys game featuring two teams that are coming off of opening week losses. Minnesota at Indianapolis is also in the upper-left quadrant and is expected to be closer, but lower scoring than ATL-DAL or NO-LV. Both of these teams were disappointing in week 1, so it will be interesting to see which team bounces back with a win.
The upper-right quadrant features games that are expected to be high-scoring, but not necessarily competitive games. Baltimore at Houston features two teams of expected high quality (which Baltimore clearly showed in week 1, while Houston struggled form much of the game against KC), with a high total and near average absolute value of point spread for the week. Kansas City at the LA Chargers and Carolina at Tampa bay are also fully in this quadrant, with both games featuring higher absolute values of the point spread with relatively higher totals. Detroit at GB is near the average point spread for the week with a slightly above average total, while two upset winners in Washington and Arizona facing off this week features a near average total and slightly higher than average point spread.
Although the lower-left quadrant of games features lower expected scoring, it does feature what are expected to be close games. Two big matchups are featured here with the LA Rams traveling to Philadelphia, featuring two teams expected to be playoff contenders in a game with a near average total. New England at Seattle is similar, although the point spread is higher than LAR-PHI and the total is slightly lower. The lower-right quadrant highlights games that are not expected to be close and are expected to be lower scoring. Jacksonville at Tennessee is in the far lower-right corner of the dashboard, with an absolute value of the point spread being in double digits, and a lower total. In addition, there are five games with near average absolute values of the point spread that are expected to be relatively low scoring, including the Thursday night matchup between Cincinnati and Cleveland.
I hope the index helps you in looking forward and planning for your weekend of NFL football. Enjoy the games.
See the First Steps: Football Analytics is now available on Amazon and at www.seesports.net/shop.
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